As we move forward into a new way of living, working and travelling, there are many things which are still unknown. But what is a certainty is that we need to think differently about our own safety on a day-to-day basis, the ways in which we work and the ways in which we travel both personally and for business.
So what does a return to travel look like? Throughout our client survey and client discussion forums we have heard that people are adjusting to this remove way of working and at this point much of the focus remains on bringing people back into the office to regain some semblance of normality. That said, we heard very clearly that few expect offices to be populated beyond 30% for the foreseeable future.
Where does that leave travel? Even the issue of commuting has become more complex with many questions yet to be answered. The first thing that we need is essentially permission from governments around the world and that means not only borders being open, but quarantine periods being clearly identified in a way that allows businesses to manage the flow of their workforce.
There is considerable and ongoing risk for companies – should they allow their staff to be exposed and how do they manage potential periods of self-isolation when people return? Do client even want to meet with them? Where does the liability lie if someone becomes ill given the duty of care towards an employee? Overwhelmingly, we heard the message safety comes first.
And finally, what will it take for travellers to feel confident to get on the move again? While there are still many road warriors who are keen to get travelling, there are many others who don’t believe they will be safe and secure for some months to come.
These areas will be explored in more detail throughout this document.
Across the industry, there has been many surveys undertaken to gain an understanding of what business and travellers believe. There is a common belief that domestic travel will return first, although that is largely dependent on how transport routes open up in the coming weeks and how the safety of passengers is assured – if indeed it can be.
The GBTA conducted a survey in April 2020 which showed an expectation for some recovery in business travel in three months or less, with 62% saying they expect domestic travel to resume in the next two to three months. This is possibly unsurprising given the majority of respondents are likely to be based in North America.
In our own survey, 79% believed the employer will allow travel to resume within the first three months of governments removing restrictions. However, a key point of difference was around the confidence of travellers. While the GBTA survey reported 88% of members expected employees would be willing to travel once restrictions are lifted our own data showed a lower figure of 50%.
On April 9, 2020 IATA published an industry restart plan with 4 key phases:
Immediate – Preparatory (Q2 2020)
Short term – Manual restart (Q3 2020)
Medium term – Temporary but systematised operations (Q4 2020 –Q4 2021)
Long term – Return to Business as Usual (Q1 2022 onward)
The clear indicator is that a return to businesses as usual is at least 18 months away and highly dependent on the release and widespread uptake of a vaccine. It also implies the assumption that a second wave will not create a further global lock-down, and an acknowledgement that each country will move at its own pace, with regional variations as well.
Anecdotal feedback from our clients would suggest the dates given in the phases above are possibly optimistic and that ‘business as usual’ will not be anywhere close to the pre COVID-19 volumes until 2023, if they ever return to the levels seen in 2019.
From industry bodies, to airlines, media commentary and beyond, there is a plethora of information to sort through. Discerning what is fact versus speculation or opinion is a skill set in its own right. Information is critical at this stage that is reliably sourced and most importantly, given the fluidity of the situation, up to date. The complexities cannot be underestimated, for example the variations between states in the US, the UK now taking slightly different paths between devolved nations, and Air France being prohibited from domestic flights as part of the state assistance they are receiving.
We believe that close to real-time accurately sourced information is critical, which is why we are working hard to get data feeds into our technology so our clients have a source of truth they can rely on. But we also know that going forwards, advice when looking to travel will be critical and that certainly in the beginning of recovery, online booking will be minimal.
It will no longer be about simply booking the best fare at times that are most convenient, and the list of considerations are increasing:
What is the cost of change or cancellation?
Should I leave booking to the last minute given the ongoing change?
Does normal company policy still apply if safety is paramount?
Should I look at alternative routes to avoid ‘hot-spots’?
Should I aim to go to more destinations in one trip now rather than separate itineraries?
What can I expect at departure and arrival airports?
Is ground transportation reliable and safe at the destination?
How do I know which hotels are COVID-19 safe?
What happens if I get quarantined at destination?
Will I have to self-isolate when I return?
What’s the cost to the company of delays and potential repatriations?
How will you make sure I am safe if something goes wrong?
An ongoing question is where does sustainability fit now? Is it still top of the agenda as it was a few months ago? In reality, while the conversation on this topic has lessened, the lack of travel and industry has had a profound effect on our planet as can be witnessed by the carbon emission heat-maps of various regions.
Across the travel managers we have spoken with, there are a number of options ranging from, it’s already being implemented into the programme to the pressure to focus on this area has lessened, through to those who want to leverage this opportunity to drive it ahead.
One of the biggest challenges for embracing an environmentally friendly travel policy has been the need to change behaviour and COVID-19 has been doing that by stealth. A benefit of the current situation has been the adoption of video conferencing. In our client survey 78% of respondents felt this was here to stay.
However, the need to protect individuals health may negatively affect the environment, for example through travelling to a meeting by private car, rather than on a train. Or reversing the move from business class travel to economy (lower carbon footprint) in favour of the more spacious business class cabin again.
Many airlines are also removing old aircraft from circulation due to COVID-19. And although this is primarily for cost reduction it also means the removal of aircraft with a higher carbon footprint. A caveat to this is that there will be older stock available for purchase if we see new entrants in the market who are challenging failing airline brands, or attempting to capitalise on capacity reduction of established brands.
Either way, the conversation and action needed on sustainability in its broadest sense is far from over, and remains at the core of Reed & Mackay’s ongoing commitment to our planet, our people and our partners.
We are making sure that all our agents and account managers are fully equipped with the information they need to support you as you navigate through these complexities. While we expect much less booking activity online, we know that R&M/Portal should be a source of information for you and R&M/Mobile will be key to keeping travellers connected while they are on the move.
Some key changes we are making include:
Getting more data from WorldAware, our risk intelligence provider, into our tools focusing on border status and airline status to begin with
Continuing travel updates through our Incident Management Unit alerts
Daily briefings to our agents when situations are rapidly changing
Encouraging use of the R&M/Mobile app to ensure travellers can receive real time information
We are committed to being agile and flexible as a business as we move into this new approach to travel and moving quickly where we need to so that we are always there when you need us.